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In-depth Analysis of Lawn Mowing Robot Industry

Robotic Lawn Mower Industry: Large Space, Rapid Growth, Low Penetration, Currently in Its Initial Stage; the Introduction of Intelligent Robotic Lawn Mowers is Expected to Significantly Boost Industry Penetration Speed.

According to Grand View Research data, the global lawnmower industry had a market size of $30.1 billion in 2020. In contrast, the global robotic lawnmower market, as per Research and Markets data, was approximately $1.3 billion in 2020, with a penetration rate of only about 4%. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2020 to 2025, significantly faster than the lawnmower industry.

More importantly, we believe that the successful launch of “smart (borderless) robotic lawnmowers” will greatly accelerate the industry penetration of robotic lawnmowers, potentially exceeding market expectations.

Product Revolution: With Technological Advancements and Algorithm Applications, the Successful Introduction of Intelligent Robotic Lawn Mowers Can Truly Address Lawn Care Pain Points, Rapidly Replacing Traditional Robotic Lawn Mowers.

Current Market Main Pain Points: Most traditional robotic lawnmowers require buried wires, leading to time and financial costs, low mowing efficiency, inapplicability during rainy days, and unsuitability for complex lawns with borders.

 By applying algorithms in the robotic lawnmower field, the introduction of intelligent (borderless) robotic lawnmowers can address the current market pain points and is expected to enter a period of accelerated development.

Policy Catalyst: Overseas Environmental Policy Guidance, Rapid Development of Robotic Lawn Mowers Based on Direct Current (Lithium Batteries).

California in the United States banning the use of gasoline lawnmowers marked the first policy move. With environmental protection and the trend towards low carbon solutions, other states in the U.S. and other countries or regions are expected to gradually increase control over power sources for products, potentially accelerating the penetration rate of robotic lawnmowers based on direct current (lithium batteries).

Industry Landscape & Restrictive Factors, Breaking Through Still Relies on Product Strength & Brand Power

 Channel Barriers: In the overseas lawnmower market, sales primarily occur through offline supermarkets and dealers. Currently, most players in the lawnmower industry have had long-term partnerships with overseas supermarkets and dealers, creating barriers for new entrants.

How to Break Through: 1) Online platforms like Amazon have favorable policies for lawnmowers; 2) Overseas supermarkets and dealers emphasize the product’s own strength and value brand assurance. Based on the existing “overseas brand power and product strength,” there is potential to disrupt the current industry landscape.

Industry Ratings & Recommended Targets: Positive Outlook, Focus on Algorithm and Technological Advantages in Target Selection.

Based on algorithmic advantages and the accumulation of long-term road testing capabilities, companies that enter the market from high dimensions to low dimensions are recommended: Jiuhao Company.

Based on algorithmic expertise in other categories (e.g., vacuum robots, drones) and efforts to expand into outdoor surfaces, the following companies are worth watching: Ecovacs, DJI.

Based on traditional lawnmower strengths and evolving towards algorithm capabilities, companies that strive to transition from low dimensions to high dimensions are recommended: Quanfeng Holdings, Daye Holdings.

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Risk Warning: 1. Lower-than-expected downstream demand; 2. Geopolitical risks; 3. Fluctuations in shipping costs, raw materials, and exchange rates.

2.0 Era: Intelligent Robotic Lawn Mowers

The era of lawn care tools 2.0 is here – Intelligent Robotic Lawn Mowers

Reviewing the “evolutionary history” of lawn care tools: Evolution of power sources is the key, along with algorithms and obstacle avoidance capabilities.
– 1.0 Era: From manual to internal combustion engines, gasoline power, AC electric power (plugged-in, limited mobility), DC electric power (battery-powered, portable).
– 1.5 Era: Robotic lawn mowers (non-autonomous path planning).
– 2.0 Era: Intelligent robotic lawn mowers (autonomous path planning).

The demand for lawn mower industry continues to grow, and the growth rate of lawn mower robots is faster than that of the industry

Industry Demand: According to ResearchandMarkets research data, the global robotic lawnmower market reached $1.3 billion in 2020. From 2019 to 2025, the global robotic lawnmower market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 12%, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate.

Additionally, according to a Frost & Sullivan report, the global cordless power tool market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9% from 2020 to 2025.

Core Drivers: Benefiting from the development of direct current (lithium battery) power, the expansion of mobility and increased convenience from lawnmowers to robotic lawnmowers have led to rapid growth in this market segment’s demand.

Robotic lawnmowers are currently primarily dominant in Europe, while North America presents some challenges or pain points in terms of adoption or market development.

Overseas demand is the primary focus, and it is strongly influenced by geographical factors, leading to regional differences
– Europe: Smaller lawn sizes (300-400 square meters).
– North America: Larger lawn sizes (600-1000 square meters) with fast grass growth during the peak season (requiring mowing 2-3 times a month). This leads to a higher demand for high-power and high-priced products such as ride-on lawnmowers (gasoline-powered).

mowing 2-3 times a month). This leads to a higher demand for high-power and high-priced products such as ride-on lawnmowers (gasoline-powered).

Therefore, with the current level of robotic lawnmower technology (requiring boundary wires), the European market is the primary focus. In the United States, due to larger lawn sizes and vigorous grass growth, the adoption of robotic lawnmowers faces more challenges.

We believe that as power sources evolve, the challenges associated with higher demands for lawnmowers in North America are expected to gradually be resolved.

Environmental policy guidance is gradually leading to a farewell to the era of combustion engines.

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a law over the weekend that orders regulatory agencies to ban the sale of certain gasoline-powered equipment, including lawn equipment, generators, and pressure washers. The California Air Resources Board is already in the process of formulating rules in this regard, but the governor has given the agency a final deadline to adopt and implement these regulations. They must pass these rules by July 1st, and the rules will apply to engines manufactured on or after January 1, 2024, or at any time deemed feasible by the board (whichever is later). The law also stipulates that regulatory agencies must provide incentives to reduce the cost of switching to equipment that doesn’t use gasoline. The latest state budget allocates $30 million to cover these costs.

The purpose of this law is to reduce emissions. The Associated Press noted that California established emissions standards for these engines in 1990. While emissions from automobiles have generally decreased over the past few decades, the situation is different for small off-road engines. State officials have stated that the pollution levels emitted by using a gasoline-powered leaf blower for just one hour are equivalent to driving approximately 1,100 miles in a 2017 Toyota Camry. Currently, there are over 16.7 million pieces of equipment equipped with small off-road engines in California, which is around 3 million more than the number of passenger cars in the state.

California is taking various measures to address emissions from gasoline engines. In 2020, the California Air Resources Board stated that all truck and bus manufacturers must transition to electric versions by 2045. The state also plans to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine cars and trucks by 2035. Many automakers have set goals to fully transition to electric vehicles by that time. Another zero-emission rule for light-duty autonomous vehicles will take effect starting in 2030. These initiatives are part of California’s broader efforts to reduce emissions and combat air pollution

Competition Landscape in the Robotic Lawnmower Industry

Robotic Lawnmower Industry Value Chain - Focus on "Brands"

Midstream Brand Manufacturers:
– Representative Companies for Lawnmowers & Robotic Lawnmowers: Husqvarna, Bosch, Sumaida, Greenworks, Great Star, Quanfeng.
– Boundaryless Intelligent Robotic Lawnmowers: Roborock, Husqvarna, Bosch.
– Potential Entrants in Boundaryless Intelligent Robotic Lawnmowers: Ecovacs, DJI.

Competition Landscape: Many Competitors in Lawnmower, Robotic Lawnmowers in Their Early Stages

Lawnmowers: Established players like Husqvarna, Bosch, Greenworks, Great Star, and Quanfeng Holdings compete vigorously, with a strong presence in the market.

Transition from Lawnmowers to Robotic Lawnmowers: Companies like Husqvarna, Bosch, and Quanfeng Holdings have ventured into the robotic lawnmower segment, evolving from one-dimensional to two-dimensional capabilities. Roborock, leveraging its existing robotics expertise, has introduced robotic lawnmowers, taking a high-dimensional to low-dimensional approach to enter the market.

Product: Lawnmower Robot Amazon Sales Rankings

“According to the Amazon Best Sellers (BS) list on Amazon.com: Rich World ranks high and has a high price; Worx, and the American local brand MTD (with Robomow as the main seller in Europe) are among the top-ranking units.

This, on one hand, indicates that high-priced lawnmower robots currently have a significant market acceptance. On the other hand, it suggests that products with existing pain points are still performing well. If these current pain points are addressed, the potential for substantial purchasing power becomes promising!”

Product: Partial Participant Performance Comparison

Company Nine’s product performance is highly competitive:
– Cost-effectiveness: Compared to Fushihua, the cost-effectiveness of construction area/unit price is higher.

– Comprehensive capability: Climbing ability is on par with Fushihua; it’s quieter, more waterproof, and can work in rainy conditions.

Technological Breakthrough: New Players Enter the Field by Reducing Dimensions.

Decomposing Grass Cutting Robot Technology – Algorithm Plays a Central Role
– Foundation: Sensors including collision, ultrasonic, laser, and vision. Ultrasonic is the most cost-effective, while laser offers the highest precision (but comes at a higher cost).
– Algorithm 1: Depth information extraction, primarily focusing on positional data.
– Algorithm 2: Localization and navigation, mainly utilizing RTK (Real-Time Kinematic) based on GPS to enhance outdoor accuracy. New technologies in this area are unlikely within the next 10 years.
– Algorithm 3: Obstacle avoidance involves utilizing sensor data to evade static/dynamic obstacles while maintaining real-time autonomous navigation towards the target.

Note 1: Company Nine has a reserve of visual algorithms and has already applied them (“Lu Meng”) but currently uses a basic ultrasonic algorithm system for its grass-cutting robots. Additionally, Company Nine has accumulated a significant amount of road test data, especially for its balancing vehicles.

Note 2: DJI (known for drones) has also accumulated substantial reserves of visual algorithms, demonstrating a deep expertise in algorithm development.

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Grass Cutting Mechanism: Motor Casing, Drive Motor, Motor and Blade Connections, Blade Disc, Blades, etc.

Motor Casing:
– Blade Height Adjustment: The motor casing features threaded holes, allowing for the adjustment of blade height by altering screw length, thus adjusting the motor’s position and blade height.
– Heat Dissipation: The motor casing dissipates the heat generated by the high-speed rotation of the motor into the robot’s body cavity for cooling.
– Overload Protection: The motor and blade connection components are made of brittle materials with low strength, allowing them to break on their own when the blade experiences excessive torque (e.g., hitting rocks).

Drive Motor (DC Servo Motor):
– Compact size, responsive, with high overload capacity and a wide speed range.
– High torque at low speeds, ensuring smooth operation with low noise and high efficiency.
– Overcoming stepping issues: Closed-loop control of position, speed, and torque.

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